Odds for getting MS

[SNOOPY]

SNOOPY, if they don't know what causes MS, then how can they know it's not a virus and that it's not catchy--to a small number of people who are predisposed to get it? Have they 100% ruled out that MS is a virus?

Hawkgirl,

MS is not a virus and has never been considered a virus. MS is not contagious.

MS is a Disease.

It is believed our own immune system attacks the Central Nervous System (CNS). Our immune system attacks Myelin, the protective coating around our nerves. The attacks to the Myelin causes scaring (sclerosis)

It is believed we are predisposed to this disease and 'something' triggers it. Viruses, enviromental, genetics might all play a part in this Disease.

http://www.multiplesclerosis.com/us/about_ms.php

[jumpinjiminy]

From what I've been reading, MS is very complex. Even the genetic studies pick up hundreds of potential risk alleles. They whittle the studies down to where they include only the most frequently occurring ones.

There is one fairly large genetic study that discovered if you have a particular MS risk allele and you smoke, you're x times more likely to get MS than a non-smoker. If you are a smoker and have 2 of this allele (remember, you can have two of each allele because of the double stranded DNA), it multiplies your chances of getting MS by like 3 (don't quote me on the number, just an example), meaning it's not additive (less risk) but multiplicative (higher risk).

What happens when they take these studies and try to look at the big picture is, the risk factors increase if you are

a) female
b) a smoker
c) have an Epstein bar viral titer over a certain level
d) have copies of the risk alleles for MS (there are possibly hundreds. They think they have about 30% of the genetic risk identified)
e) have a low vitamin D level

Take these factors out, and your risk decreases, but that doesn't mean you can't develop MS. There also happen to be genes that protect against getting MS. And we can't forget the studies they've done on the gut microflora and how it could possibly be involved.

Most of the genes they've found that regularly occur in the MS population are in areas that code for immune system regulation and function. They have found genes that code for how the nervous system repairs itself. They have found genes that code for malfunctioning proteins that interfere with the production and use of vitamin D by the body. There are many others identified but their functions are still unknown.

I think when they have the whole picture put together, they will find that MS is a collection of malfunctioning cells and proteins in the body that are almost as varied as the ways it can present from one person to another.

This is not going to be a one-size-fits-all treatment development - unless you go nuclear and go for a stem cell transplant.

[Redwings]

SNOOPY, if they don't know what causes MS, then how can they know it's not a virus and that it's not catchy--to a small number of people who are predisposed to get it? Have they 100% ruled out that MS is a virus?

Just because medical science doesn't know what causes MS doesn't mean it doesn't know what doesn't cause MS. About 100 years of MS research has shown that it's an autoimmune condition, not a contagious virus.

The virus-cause question is a good one, but it's the kind of question asked by a newbie who doesn't have a lot of background information, hasn't done a lot of independent research, and is hoping that the huge mystery of autoimmune diseases can be explained by just a few posts in an online forum.

Contributing further to the confusion is the expectation that MS can be understood without a basic understanding of anatomy and physiology, pathology and nosology. Those things can't be simply explained by a few posts in a forum.

Further, two other misunderstandings abound in the (mis)understanding of MS. One is the inability to differentiate similarities and differences between things in general, and the other is the associated tendency to lump all kinds of unrelated things together.

In particular is the tendency to think that MS is some kind of unique disease. As autoimmune conditions go, it isn't unique. The general theory behind autoimmune diseases is that they require two things: 1) a genetic predisposition and 2) an environmental trigger. There is much debate -- and even some evidence -- that the Epstein Barr virus is the environmental trigger behind MS. But that isn't the same thing as the virus being the cause of MS (and folks who have a basic understanding of anatomy, physiology and pathology appreciate this).

Personally speaking, all of my neurological troubles started after I had a simple cold, and that wasn't the Epstein Barr virus.

Gulf War Syndrome is a different clue that exposure to toxic compounds might be the environmental trigger to MS in genetically susceptible individuals. Mycobacteria are another suspected trigger. But none of that means that those are suspected causes of MS and are contagious, or that MS is contagious. Those are theories of people who haven't studied autoimmune diseases in general, and MS in particular.

Another area of misunderstanding is that folks without sufficient scientific background aren't able to distinguish the difference between "genetically transmitted" and "hereditary."

So I agree with jumpinjiminy in that MS is complex and that there isn't a one-size-fits-all cause or treatment. But I also have to stress that MS isn't by any means unique among autoimmune conditions, and that's what a lot of folks who don't have a basic understanding of anatomy, physiology and pathology don't appreciate. Without an understanding of the basic underlying science, it isn't possible to know or appreciate what the "odds for getting MS" are.

[palmtree]

The more I realize how much we don't know, the more open I am open to different theories. I've always "known" that MS is an auto-immune disease, not contagious nor caused by a virus nor by stress. But since I've been living with this thing and reading the posts of others with this thing, there are more questions than answers.

[Hawkgirl]

it's the kind of question asked by a newbie who doesn't have a lot of background information, hasn't done a lot of independent research, and is hoping that the huge mystery of autoimmune diseases can be explained by just a few posts in an online forum.

^ This offended me. I think that's all I will say right now.

[0485c10]

I believe like jumpinjimmy wrote and logically as Redwing wrote---but i also believe nothing in medicine is certain and an open mind is needed always--as in meds in medicine i think remember thalidimide and as for virus i remember when they discovered a virus caused some ulcers,was easily treated) where previously & for a long time they thought all ulcers were from stress

in medicine i think there is often an unsaid, start to any sentence that is just suppose to be understood its there, like the silent letter in some words, that i can't think of an example right now, darn! it would have made such a good ending,.

(at this time we have is no indication ms is caused by a virus.) ms is not caused by a virus.

(at this time we have no indication you have ms). you do not have ms.

(at this time everything is pointing to ms). you have ms.

and many more statements like that. there is a silent phrase that precedes any statement in medicine.

[Sequoia]

^ This offended me. I think that's all I will say right now.

I'm sure it wasn't meant to be judgmental or uncaring, Hawkgirl.

It's understandable that someone who's relatively new to all this might wonder if there's an outside chance that MS is contagious. But the fact is that there is no evidence to support the idea.

Which means that only in the sense that anything is always possible is it possible that MS could be caught from another person who has it.

[0485c10]

^ This offended me. I think that's all I will say right now.

i'm kind of frustrated right back, not because of the background needed in psyiology, which i don't have, the YEARS i spent learning statistics & DOE(design of experiments) and how to interpret data obtained for statistical significance, and what they mean...then some who hasn't spent any elbow grease to learn the background to interpret data..well politically its called "the people who have their own facts"..... evereyone can have their own opinion but no one can have their own facts.

i avoided a landmine or i might have been in Redwings position over statistical analysis. i was impressed with how diplomatically he phrased it .

[jumpinjiminy]

I, for one, would appreciate a better understanding of the odds. If there is anything I've misphrased, misunderstood, or misinterpreted, it wouldn't be an insult for someone with a better understanding to rephrase or reinterpret anything I've posted above. We're all learning, and if that requires revisiting some basics to gain a better understanding going forward, there is nothing wrong with doing so.

[0485c10]

I, for one, would appreciate a better understanding of the odds.

the odds for everything is between 0.0001% and 99.9999%, maybe your looking for a filter of statistically significant information? otherwise referred to as elbow grease.

[Sir-Voor]

A simple thing you can do; is to replace your light bulbs with daylight bulbs.

I did it in my office at work and most of my lights at home, I don’t know how much if any effect it will have on D level. But I sleep better now and that helps fight and possibly helps prevent MS.
Also greatly reduces eye strain, improves mood and learning.

Plus it makes a room look cleaner.

And with it being winter now is the best time to switch.
P.S. it often takes a few days or weeks before they break in and get to their full lighting.

[Alicious]

Just to lighten the mood, Hawkgirl, <tin hat> </tin hat> is the funniest thing I've read in awhile.

Redwings, I had never come across the word nosology before. Thanks!

[0485c10]

And who would have thought in the past that some cerical cancers are caused by a virus, but there is statistically significant data that is the case. Some people still don't believe it...more to the point if they find a virus that causes some ms with statistically significant data that prove that is the case, will you believe it?

[BigA]

It's very important that we ask all of our questions, whether we think they are stupid or brilliant. We need to keep asking, reading and figuring out ourselves.

Unfortunately, even our nurses and doctors give unclear information and for that reason, there are no stupid questions.

[jumpinjiminy]

Why not? Isn't there some study going on regarding a viral cause or retroviral, or MS as a continual subclinical infection of sorts?

It isn't beyond the realm of imagination, and wouldn't be a complete surprise if it was discovered to be some sort of infectious agent.

Considering the immune system health of a smoking female with regular monthly dips in immune function, low vitamin D levels, who has had an episode of total wipe out of a major branch of the immune system in the past, and has inherited a cornucopia of risk alleles for abnormal immune system function along with poor neurological repair function, one could begin to see where an infectious organism might gain a strong foothold and be difficult for the body to fight off.

There is one question that I can think of that doesn't fit this theory and that is, why is there a tendency for pregnant women to go into remission?